Transformations in the Middle East

after Tufan Al-Aqsa

OVERVIEW

The events of 7 October 2023, or Tufan Al-Aqsa, were not merely a limited battle or another war within the context of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Rather, they constituted a historical turning point that opened up new pathways on various fronts. On the Palestinian front, the Palestinian issue regained prominence in both Arab and global spheres, reigniting discussions about its political future following the failure of the Oslo process, which had reached an impasse. On the Arab front, a widening gap emerged between the popular support for resistance and the official stances, which starkly revealed their inability to provide even minimal support, including humanitarian aid for the residents of Gaza. Additionally, the war cast its shadow over normalisation efforts, disrupting them and introducing a host of political and ethical challenges. On the Israeli front, the conflict deepened societal and political divisions, eroded the deterrent power of the military, and prolonged doubts and legitimate uncertainties regarding the Zionist project, its foundation, existence and future.
Regionally, amidst the divergence of strategies and competition, the fronts of military, security and intelligence confrontation with Israel have multiplied, taking on various forms, extents and impacts, notably in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and the Red Sea. Globally, the war has prompted a reassessment of foreign policy priorities for several countries, led by the United States. It has shifted its focus from the Russian conflict in Ukraine and efforts to contain China’s escalating dominance in the Indo-Pacific region to direct involvement in the Middle East conflict. This involves unconditional support for Israel and close alignment with its goals and policies. Furthermore, the United States’ image in the region has been shaken and its policies have been impacted, starting with the “deal of the century,” continuing through its regional alliances, and culminating in its role and leadership on the world stage.
Within the context of this war, an unprecedented debate has also unfolded regarding the West’s identity, history, leadership and political and cultural biases. Fundamental questions have been posed about the prevailing international system and the values, institutions and treaties associated with it concerning their effectiveness, legitimacy and ability to achieve the goals they were established for, such as rights, justice, peace and international security. This is accompanied by a profound and growing shift in global public opinion towards supporting the Palestinian cause and opposing Israel. It is likely that this trend will evolve from temporary field protests into permanent mechanisms that exert pressure on institutions, influence policies and contribute to decision-making.

Themes for discussion

  • «Tufan Al-Aqsa» in the context of Palestinian national struggle: Resistance and

    political prospects

    • The Implications of the War on Israel: Politics, Society and the Future of the
    Zionist Project
    • International Justice in the Balance of the Israeli War on Gaza
    • The Arab Regime and the Palestinian Cause: Shifts in Positions, Risks and Roles
    • Post-Tufan Balances at the Regional Level: Powers, Axes and Strategies
    • Gaza Rearranges the Priorities of the International Agenda: The Middle East,
    Conflict in Ukraine and Tensions with China
    • Media in Times of War: Challenges of Safety and Professionalism
    • Special Dialogue with Influencers on the Conflict of Narratives