From the War on Gaza to Change in Syria:
Shifting Dynamics in the Middle East

Since the outbreak of the Israeli war on Gaza sixteen months ago, the Middle East has witnessed profound and rapid strategic changes. Amid these changes, the humanitarian suffering of Gaza’s population persists due to Israel’s ethnic cleansing and genocide, despite the lack of clear military objectives. At the same time, the occupying forces continue to destroy Gaza’s infrastructure, aiming to displace its residents and render the region uninhabitable in view of plans to divide it and reoccupy parts of it.

By the end of its first year, the war underwent a significant transformation, expanding to include the Lebanese front, with Iran joining the confrontation through an extensive and unprecedented attack deep within Israeli territory. As a result, the war is no longer solely a Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but has taken on a clear regional dimension. The confrontation with Hezbollah shifted from a supportive role for Gaza to an independent battleground, with its own military, political and negotiating dynamics, before halting due to rising casualties on both sides. In the same vein, the Yemeni front opened and engaged in clashes with the occupation for several months, inflicting substantial damage on maritime navigation in the Red Sea and posing strategic risks that the joint U.S.-led Operation Prosperity Guardians was unable to mitigate.

In this volatile military situation and shifting regional equation, various regional and international strategies are competing. The most prominent is the Israeli strategy, supported by the West, which sought to separate the fronts, isolate Gaza from external support, and impose regional settlements that reflect Israel’s dominance over the region, despite its mounting losses on all fronts. On the other hand, Iran worked to consolidate its regional influence, enhance its deterrent power, and assert its leadership of the Axis of Resistance, with its advanced weaponry and capabilities for unconventional warfare before suffering a major setback with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Meanwhile, Turkey, which has faced criticism for its passive role in the war on Gaza, continued collaborating with the Syrian opposition on multiple fronts, contributing to the downfall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime shortly after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The regime change in Syria represents both an extension of the Arab Spring and a consequence of Tufan al-Aqsa Flood, with growing significance given the nature of the Syrian stage, which intersects with several regional and international strategies.

Amidst this competition between regional strategies and the narratives that support them, the absence of official Arab leadership persists—both in guiding the current events and in proposing future arrangements that would serve the Palestinian cause. Despite the importance of certain individual efforts, these roles have failed to bring about substantial changes in the core of the existing equation.

While the inability of Arab populations to play an active role has become apparent, movements from other peoples—particularly youth—have not subsided. These generations, now liberated from the constraints of the Zionist narrative surrounding the conflict’s history, are expected to play an increasingly significant role in the future, especially in the West. Their protest movements are likely to shift from the streets to the institutions of public opinion and decision-making.

Discussion Topics

The situation in Gaza: Humanitarian, military and diplomatic perspectives

Lebanon after the ceasefire: Domestic developments and international initiatives

The war of strategies: Iran, Israel, Turkey and the Arab absence

Regime change in Syria: Internal impacts and regional consequences

The struggle of narratives: The role of media and influencers in constructing and deconstructing

The global landscape: The war in Ukraine and the impact of Trump’s return on relations with Europe and Russia

The global protest and solidarity movement (featuring key figures in Western university activism)

Post-war arrangements for the Palestinian cause and the region as a whole